省会城市经济发展的溢出效应：基于工业企业数据的分析
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| Title | The Spillover Effects of Economic Development in Provincial Capital: An Analysis Based on Industrial Enterprise Data
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| 作者 | 赵奎 后青松 李巍 |
| Author | Zhao kui,Hou Qingsong and Li We |
| 作者单位 | 华中科技大学管理学院；中国农业银行 |
| Organization | Huazhong University of Science and Technology;Agricultural Bank of China |
| 作者Email | zhaokui2015@hust.edu.cn；tsingsonghou@hust.edu.cn；378633196@qq.com |
| 中文关键词 | 强省会战略 溢出效应 学习 Bartik工具变量 |
| Key Words | Strategy of Strengthening Provincial Capitals; Spillover Effects;Learning;Bartik-type Instrumental Variables |
| 内容提要 | 如何协调城市之间的经济发展是一个重要问题，一种观点主张“严格控制大城市规模，发展中小城市”，另一种相反观点主张推行强省会战略，以省会城市的发展带动地方城市的发展。两种政策主张的差异反映了人们在省会城市的发展是促进还是阻碍地方城市的发展这一问题上的分歧。本文使用中国工业企业数据库构造的1998-2012年城市-行业层面的面板数据来研究省会城市的工业发展对省内其他地方城市发展的影响，通过使用份额移动法构造的Bartik工具变量来解决内生性问题。回归结果表明，省会城市的工业发展会显著带动地方城市的发展，实现比翼齐飞的效果，而且溢出效应非常大：省会工业的发展每提高1个百分点，会带动地方城市的发展提高0.2~0.3个百分点。一系列稳健性检验都支持这一结果。本文还区分了实现溢出效应的两种机制：学习机制和分工机制。实证分析表明，学习机制在其中起主导作用。最后，本文从上下游产业关联的视角分析了省会城市工业发展的影响，发现了比之前更强的溢出效应，其影响在0.3~0.5个百分点。本文研究为强省会战略的实施提供了实证支持。 |
| Abstract | How to coordinate the economic development between cities is an important issue. One view advocates to strictly control the size of large cities and develop small and medium-sized cities, while the other opposite view advocates the strategy of strengthening provincial capitals and to promote the development of local cities by the development of provincial capitals. The difference between the two policy propositions reflects the different opinions among people on whether the development of provincial capitals should promote or hinder the development of local cities. This paper uses the panel data at the city-industry level from 1998 to 2012 constructed by the database of Chinese industrial enterprises to study the impact of industrial development in provincial capitals on urban development in other parts of the province, and uses the Bartik-type instrumental variable constructed by the shifting-share method to solve the endogeneity problem. The regression results show that the industrial development of provincial capitals will significantly drive the development of local cities, achieving the effect of taking off together. The spillover effect is very large: every 1 percentage point increase in the industrial development of provincial capitals will drive the development of local cities by 0.2~0.3 percentage points. A range of robustness tests support this result. This paper also distinguishes two mechanisms: learning mechanism and labor division mechanism. The empirical analysis shows that the learning mechanism plays a leading role. Finally, this paper further analyzes the influence of industrial development in provincial capitals from the perspective of upstream and downstream industry links, and finds that the spillover effect is even stronger than before, with its influence at about 0.3~0.5 percentage points. This study provides empirical support for the implementation of the strategy of strengthening provincial capitals. |
| 文章编号 | WP1472 |
| 登载时间 | 2021-03-09 |
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