利率市场化微观效应研究——基于2008年金融危机后中国上市公司投资的经验证据 阅读全文
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Title | Research on the Micro-Effect of Interest Rate Liberalization
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作者 | 郑曼妮 黎文靖 柳建华 |
Author | Zheng Manni, Li Wengjing and Liu Jianhua |
作者单位 | 暨南大学管理学院;中山大学岭南学院 |
Organization | School of Management, Jinan University; Lingnan (University) College, Sun Yat-Sen University |
作者Email | 352006840@qq.com;tliwenjing@jnu.edu.cn;liujhua8@mail.sysu.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 利率市场化 企业投资 过度投资 预算软约束 |
Key Words | Interest Rate Liberalization; Investment in Enterprise; Over-Investment; Soft Budget Constraints |
内容提要 | 本文通过2013年贷款基础利率集中报价和发布机制正式运行这一外生事件,采用2009年至2016年沪深A股上市公司数据,检验利率市场化改革对企业投资的影响及其传导机制。研究发现,“贷款基础利率的集中报价和发布机制”正式运行之后,贷款均来自首批9家报价行的企业,其投资规模显著减少、过度投资和过度银行借款被抑制;但预算软约束是影响利率市场化效果发挥的重要条件,因为上述结果只存在于非国有企业中。进一步针对非国有企业样本的检验发现,没有银企关系和没有政治关联的非国有企业,利率市场化使其投资规模显著减少、过度投资被抑制;当投资机会更好时,非国有企业的投资与投资机会的敏感性显著增强;可见利率市场化能促使企业理性投资、抑制其过度投资和提高其投资效率,但前提是企业不受预算软约束。基于2008年金融危机后上市公司投资的经验证据表明,硬化预算约束,利率市场化才能更好地适应经济新常态,发挥推动经济增长方式转变、提高资源配置效率的作用。 |
Abstract | Chinese mechanism of loan prime rate concentrated quotation and release was officially launched in 2013. Through this exogenous event, this paper used the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2016, as well as the "Difference-in-Differences Estimator", to test whether and how the interest rate liberalization affect firms’ investment decisions and investment efficiency. In this paper, we found that after the formal operation of "Chinese mechanism of loan prime rate concentrated quotation and release", those firms, whose loans were from the first nine quotations firms, reduced their investments and excessive bank borrowings significantly, leading to less over-investment. However, soft budget constraints were an important condition for the micro-effect of interest rate liberalization because such results mentioned above only existed in non-state-owned enterprises. Our further tests in the non-state-owned enterprises shown that, those firms, which had no bank connections or no political connections, reduced their investments after the interest rate marketization reform, leading to less over-investment. When having better investment opportunities, the sensitivity between investments and investment opportunities of non-state enterprises was increased significantly after the interest rate marketization reform. It meant that only if enterprises were not subject to soft budget constraints can interest rate liberalization make firms invest rationally, reduce their over-investments and improve their investment efficiency. Based on the empirical evidence of the investments of the listed companies after the financial crisis in 2008, it shows that only through hardening the budget constraints can interest rate marketization adapt to the new economic normal, as well as play the role to transform the economic development pattern and to improve the efficiency of resource allocation. |
文章编号 | WP1360 |
登载时间 | 2019-04-09 |
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