财政政策波动性与最优财政规则：基于开放条件DSGE模型的分析
阅读全文
下载全文 |
| Title | Fiscal Volatility and Optimal Fiscal Rules: Based on Open Economy DSGE Model
|
| 作者 | 王立勇 纪尧 |
| Author | Wang Liyong and Ji Yao |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China |
| 作者Email | liyongecon@126.com；jiyaocufe@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 财政政策波动性 财政规则 货币规则 金融摩擦 动态随机一般均衡 |
| Key Words | Fiscal volatility; Fiscal rule; Monetary rule; Financial fraction; DSGE |
| 内容提要 | 本文构造纳入政策波动性的财政政策运动方程，定量测度中国财政政策波动性，构建开放条件下的动态随机一般均衡模型研究我国财政政策波动性的宏观影响与微观机理，并在纳入考虑财政政策波动性冲击效应的DSGE框架下，从降低财政政策波动性影响视角考察在不同货币政策行为规则情景下的财政规则影响和最优财政规则问题。研究结果表明：我国财政政策存在较大波动性；财政政策波动性冲击通过预期渠道能够导致经济增长、消费、投资、实际工资和劳动雇佣等下滑，导致政府债务增加；在封闭条件下和不考虑金融摩擦的情况下，会大大低估财政政策波动性的负面影响；在货币政策为泰勒规则、货币供应量规则与混合规则情景下，leeper式的财政规则下财政政策波动性的负向影响普遍弱于“惯性支出”规则、“债务变化”规则和盯住“产出缺口”的规则。 |
| Abstract | This paper measures the volatility of fiscal policy in China quantitatively , and constructs a DSGE model to research the macro effect and micro mechanism of fiscal policy volatility. Next, this paper compares different fiscal rules from the view of fiscal policy volatility shock in a DSGE model involving fiscal policy volatility. This research reaches several conclusions. Firstly, volatility of China’s government expenditure is high, volatility of China’s consumption tax measured by average tax rate of consumption tax and China’s income tax rate measured by average tax rate of income tax are stable. Secondly, fiscal policy volatility causes the decrease of economic growth, consumption, investment, real wage and employment by expectation mechanism, and the increase of government debt. The negative impact of fiscal policy volatility on economy is hugely underestimated in a DSGE model without financial fraction. Thirdly, fiscal policy volatility shock imposes smaller negative effect on economy under leeper’s rule of government expenditure and tax policy than continuous spending rule, pegging debt rule and pegging output gap rule. |
| 文章编号 | WP1324 |
| 登载时间 | 2019-01-08 |
|