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空气污染与高人力资本人群迁移——基于来华留学生高校-城市选择的研究
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TitleAir Pollution and Migration of High-Skilled Workers in China  
作者李明 张亦然  
AuthorLi Ming and Zhang Yiran  
作者单位对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 
OrganizationUniversity of International Business and Economics 
作者Emailmingli@uibe.edu.cn,zyruibe@163.com 
中文关键词空气污染 人口迁移 “秦岭-淮河”分界线 因果关系 
Key WordsAir Pollution, Migration, Huai River Heating Policy, Causality 
内容提要空气污染是否驱动着人口迁移,引发了社会各界广泛的关注。但限于数据的可得性,尚无严谨的文献就此展开研究。把来华留学生视为“准国民”,把他们对国内高校-城市的选择视为空间迁移,本文研究了空气污染对高人力资本人群迁移的影响。本文实证策略借助了中国以“秦岭-淮河”地理分界线,实施南北城市差异供暖政策的冲击。该政策一方面使得国内城市在分界线附近近似随机分布,另一方面也使得两侧城市空气质量因有无集中供暖而存在差异。基于此,采用2002-2012年国内高校在校留学生数与城市环境指标匹配的面板数据,本文研究发现:城市年均空气污染指数上升,或年均污染天数增加,辖域内高校在校留学生数减少。按经费来源的异质性研究表明,自费来华留学生对空气污染的敏感性高于政府奖学金生。鉴于政府奖学金生中来自欠发达国家学生的比重更大,在华迁移成本相对高,因此该结论显示,处于高收入阶段,低迁移成本的人群,对空气污染更敏感。 
AbstractThere has more and more concern in China about whether people “vote with their feet” for places with good air quality. With the limitation of the data, however, there have been few direct tests of this question. Using the panel data matched overseas students at school level with city level air quality, this paper investigates the effect of air pollution on the migration of high-skilled workers. Our empirical strategy leverages the Huai River heating policy, which created discontinuous quasi-experimental variation in air pollution between the north and south of the river. We find that the number of oversea students decreased, if the air quality worsened. Further research shows that, oversea students funding by themselves are more sensitive than students funding by Chinese government. We think, migration cost and the developmental level of the countries those students coming from, maybe the probably reason for this heterogeneity. 
文章编号WP1282 
登载时间2018-06-28 
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