“结构性”货币政策的有效性研究——基于差别化存款准备金政策的分析
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| Title | Researches on Effectiveness of Structural Monetary Policy in China——Based on Differentiated Deposit Reserve Policy
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| 作者 | 王立勇 任锦 |
| Author | Wang Liyong and Ren Jin |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | liyongecon@126.com；jinren20@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 断点回归 双重差分 “结构性” 货币政策 差别化存款准备金 |
| Key Words | RD; DID; Structural Monetary Policy; Differentiated Deposit Reserve Policy |
| 内容提要 | 本文采用断点回归和双重差分的识别策略，分别从经济增长和农业发展两个视角研究了差别化存款准备金政策这一试点的“结构性”货币政策的效率效果。研究结果表明：在以经济增长和第一产业产值占比为被解释变量的断点回归模型和双重差分模型中，政策虚拟变量的系数和DID估计量皆显著为正，说明差别化存款准备金政策有效地促进了试点区的经济增长与农业发展，即“结构性”货币政策是有效的，能够实现政策目标。即使变换带宽，政策虚拟变量的系数估计结果变化不大；稳健性检验充分表明两种模型的适用条件和假设能够满足，模型估计结果稳健有效。尽管两种计量方法估计得到的结果在理解上有差异，但是基本结论非常一致。本文同时给出相应理论解释与政策建议。 |
| Abstract | The article studies the effectiveness of structural monetary policy taking differentiated deposit reserve policy as example with RD and DID models. The results show that in the RD and DID models with economic growth and the proportion of the first industry output value as explained variable, the coefficient of policy dummy variable and DID estimator are significantly positive, which means that differentiated deposit reserve policy and structural monetary policy are indeed effective, that is, it makes economy and agriculture grow faster. Even though the bandwidth is changed, the coefficient of policy dummy variable is almost unchanged. The robustness check shows that the assumption of the two models can meet, the results mentioned above are robust and effective. The results from two models are almost the same. Finally the article gives theoretical explanations and policy suggestions. |
| 文章编号 | WP1200 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-06-30 |
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