理解我国名义利率传导机制有效性的时变特征——基于DSGE模型的理论分析与TVP-VAR模型的实证检验 阅读全文
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Title | Understanding the time-varying characteristics of the effectiveness of the nominal interest rate transmission mechanism
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作者 | 刘金全 徐宁 于洋 |
Author | Liu Jinquan, Xu Ning and Yu Yang |
作者单位 | 吉林大学商学院 |
Organization | Jilin University |
作者Email | 1575521732@qq.com; |
中文关键词 | 名义利率 资产价格 实体经济 DSGE模型 TVP-VAR模型 |
Key Words | Nominal Interest Rate;Asset Price;Real Economy;DSGE Model;TVP-VAR Model |
内容提要 | 本文采用DSGE模型与TVP-VAR模型对“利率调整→资产价格→实体经济”这一政策传导路径的有效性进行理论模拟与计量检验,结果发现:理论上,名义利率调整可以有效平抑资产价格波动进而稳定实体经济增长,但在实际传导过程中,各变量对利率变动的反应却较为缓慢,这主要是因为我国利率传导机制尚不完善,基准利率锚定和利率走廊尚未建成,同时,我国软约束和结构性矛盾较为突出,降息所释放的部分流动性只是在金融体系内“空转”。因此,政府和中央银行应该逐步强化对市场利率的调控和引导,通过加强利率市场化来疏通利率传导渠道,促进虚拟经济和实体经济的协调发展,进而从根本上强化名义利率对金融市场和实体经济的调节功能。 |
Abstract | This paper uses the DSGE model and the TVP-VAR model to do theoretical simulation and measurement test for the effectiveness of transmission path: interest rate adjustment → asset prices → entity economy. The results showed that: in theory, the nominal interest rate adjustment can effectively stabilize the assets price fluctuation and the real economy stability, but in the actual conduction process, the variables are relatively slow in response to changes of interest rates. This is mainly because China's interest rate transmission mechanism is not perfect, benchmark interest rate and interest rate corridor has not yet been built, at the same time, soft constraint and structural contradiction are more prominent, the liquidity of interest rate released only idles in the financial system. Therefore, governments and central banks should gradually strengthen regulation and guidance on the interest rate market, through the strengthening of the interest rate market to clear the interest rate transmission channel, promoting the coordinated development of fictitious economy and real economy, thus fundamentally strengthen the adjustment function of nominal interest rate to financial markets and the real economy. |
文章编号 | WP1179 |
登载时间 | 2017-04-18 |
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