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全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解
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TitleThe Technical Effect and the Structural Effect in the Growth of Total Factor Productivity  
作者蔡跃洲 付一夫  
AuthorCai Yuezhou and Fu Yifu  
作者单位中国社会科学院 
OrganizationChinese Academy of Social Sciences 
作者Emailcaiyuezhou@cass.org.cn;fuyifu1987@163.com 
中文关键词全要素生产率 技术效应 结构效应 增长核算 
Key WordsTotal Factor Productivity (TFP); Technical Effect; Structural Effect; Growth Accounting 
内容提要宏观全要素生产率增长可分解为代表普遍技术进步的技术效应和要素流动配置的结构效应。利用中国宏观及产业数据,在增长核算基础上将TFP增长分解为技术效应和结构效应,据以对改革开放以来不同阶段中国经济增长的来源进行更为细致的剖析。实证表明:(1)得益于后发优势,1978-2014期间中国经济增长整体质量较高,增长动力约1/3来自技术水平的普遍提升,而结构效应的作用仅为技术效应的1/5。(2)2000-2005期间以后,中外技术差距的缩小导致后发优势逐步衰减,技术进步对经济增长的支撑作用迅速下降;而结构效应对经济增长的贡献度不断提高,并维持了较高的TFP增长率;该趋势在二、三产业尤为突出,也是工业化和城市化推进的结果。(3)金融危机后,钢铁、水泥等产能过剩的领域及“金融与保险”、“房地产”等细分行业虽出现技术停滞或倒退,而要素资源配置存在“逆技术进步倾向”,要素驱动特征不断强化,至2014年才出现扭转迹象。宏观和产业TFP增长是未来保持中国经济中高速增长、提高经济增长质量的重要支撑。短期内应综合运用各种政策工具优化产业结构,将要素资源引导到技术和效率水平更高的细分行业,发挥TFP增长的结构效应;中长期则应着力实施好创新驱动发展战略,切实推动各行业技术进步。 
AbstractThe growth of total factor productivity (TFP) for the whole economy can be decomposed into the technical effect and the structural effect, which represent the general technological change and the allocation of the factors among sectors respectively. Based on China's macro and sector data, TFP growth is decomposed into technical effect and structural effect based on growth accounting. Then the sources of China's economic growth at different stages since 1978 is further analyzed in detail. The empirical results show that: (1) Owing to the advantage of latecomer, China has gained a growth of pretty high quality during 1978-2014 with more than one-third of the contribution comes from the general improvement of technological change, while the contribution of structure effect is only one-fifth of technical effect. (2) After 2005, the technological gap between China and the developed economies has been narrowed significantly, and the contribution of technological change on growth declined rapidly. While the contribution of structural effect to economic growth has been continuously improved and support a fairly high TFP growth. Due to the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, such trend is particularly prominent in both the secondary and the tertiary industries. (3) After the financial crisis, areas of overcapacity such as iron and steel, cement, and industries of "financial and insurance" and "real estate" encounter stagnation and even retrogression technically, while the factor resource allocation has a tendency of "reverse technological progress". And the feature of factor-driven continues to be strengthen until 2014. It is the growth of TFP in Macro and sector levels that support China's rapid economic growth and improve the growth quality. So in the near future, policy tools should be applied to optimize the industrial structure, and induce the factor resources to enter the sub-sectors of higher technical and efficiency levels, in order to exert structural effect of TFP growth. In the medium and long term, emphasis should be put on implementing innovation-driven development strategies. 
文章编号WP1173 
登载时间2017-03-31 
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