中国银行业系统性风险的“社会性消化”机制研究
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| Title | Social-digestion Mechanism of Bank Systemic Risk in China
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| 作者 | 童中文 范从来 解晓洋 邹静 |
| Author | Tong Zhongwen, Fan Conglai, Xie Xiaoyang and Zou Jing |
| 作者单位 | 南京师范大学商学院 |
| Organization | Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing University, Agricutural Bank of China |
| 作者Email | lrhasia@163.com；fancl@nju.edu.cn；380747675@qq.com；fancl@nju.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 银行系统性风险 网络演化 宏观压力测试 社会性消化 中国金融系统性风险之谜 |
| Key Words | Bank Systemic Risk; Netting Evolution; Macro Pressure Testing; Social-digestion; The Mystery of Financial Systemic Risk in China |
| 内容提要 | 银行业系统性风险是个连续累积过程，主要经由信用和信息渠道完成，本质上是通过流动性波动的形式进行的。2003年前的不良资产率一直很高，2003年后的流动性波动剧烈，尤其受近期经济下行等影响，系统性风险累积一直较高。宏观压力测试表明，在轻度、中度和重度的情境下，我国银行业系统性风险都较高程度地累积存在且渐趋严重，而“社会性消化”机制——基于合作博弈均衡的市场内在的风险“自我消化”机制和银行软预算约束对风险的外部“救助”机制，使我国短期内“规避”了金融危机，但银行软预算约束引致的信贷扩张以及资产泡沫却在长期内使银行体系脆弱性增强，系统性风险累积增加，须强化金融基础制度建设进行防范和化解。 |
| Abstract | Bank systemic risk is a continuous accumulation process by the way of the story and credit. But all of these focus on the liquidity fluctuating. The bank systemic risk of China is always high consisting in the higher non-performing loan ratio before 2003 and worsening liquidity after 2003. Macro pressure testing showed the risk social-digestion mechanism avoided the financial crisis in short that included the risk self-digestion based on the game equilibrium and the rescue mechanism from soft budget constraint, but it bringed about the long-term effect including credit expanding, distorting of resources allocating and encouraging and moral risk which are making the bank system more and more fragile. Then the bank systemic risk is growing more severe. We must struct institutional-based to avoid and dissolve the bank systemic risk. |
| 文章编号 | WP1085 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-07-22 |
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