适应性学习与中国通货膨胀非均衡分析
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| Title | Adaptive Learning and Chinese Inflation Disequilibrium Analysis
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| 作者 | 范从来 高洁超 |
| Author | Fan Conglai and Gao Jiechao |
| 作者单位 | 南京大学 |
| Organization | Nanjing University |
| 作者Email | fancl@nju.edu.cn；gaojiechao1989@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 适应性学习 菲利普斯曲线 均衡通胀 通胀偏差 |
| Key Words | Adaptive learning; Phillips curve; Equilibrium inflation; Inflation deviation |
| 内容提要 | 本文立足公众预期的有限理性这一现实背景，首次将三种适应性学习过程引入混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线，构建刻画通货膨胀非均衡运行的动态机制模型。使用2001年1季度至2015年3季度实际数据估计参数的基础上，遴选出合意的学习模型。模拟分析发现：（1）在适应性学习预期下，通货膨胀运行具有非均衡特点；（2）降低通胀预期和通胀惯性在通胀驱动机制中的影响力可以有效抑制潜在均衡通胀，通胀惯性的影响力度大于通胀预期；（3）公众预期的理性成分提高有助于降低均衡通胀偏差。本文认为防通胀的货币政策应该分两个层面进行：（1）通过提高公众预期的理性程度降低实际通胀对均衡的偏离；（2）长期内引导经济收敛于一个合意的低水平均衡通胀。此外，货币政策须结合制度建设长短配合共同抑制潜在均衡通胀；同时预期管理需要规避短视化倾向、完善信息披露机制，在长期则须提高国民的经济学受教育程度、增强公众对经济状况的判断力。 |
| Abstract | Based on the background about bounded rationality in public expectations, this paper firstly introduces three kinds of adaptive learning processes into the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in order to model the dynamic disequilibrium mechanism of inflation running. After using real data from 2001Q1 to 2015Q3 to estimate parameters, it selects out the most desired learning model. Simulation analysis finds that, (1) inflation running shows the disequilibrium feature under adaptive learning expectation; (2) reducing the influences of inflation expectation and inflation inertia in inflation driving mechanism can effectively inhibit the potential equilibrium inflation and the influence of inflation inertia is greater than inflation expectation; (3) improving the rational degree of public expectation could help decrease the equilibrium inflation bias. This paper proves the anti-inflation monetary policy should be implemented by two ways, (1) decreasing the deviations between actual inflation and equilibrium inflation by increasing the rational degree of public expectation; (2) guiding the economy to converge to low equilibrium inflation. And monetary policy should be combined with institutional improvement to inhibit potential equilibrium inflation. At the same time, expectation management should avoid myopic tendency and improve the information disclosure mechanism, in the long run, it also must improve people’s level of economic education and enhance the public’s judgment of the economy. |
| 文章编号 | WP1070 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-06-21 |
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