服务贸易、非对称开放与全球失衡：一项跨国的经验研究
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| Title | Trade in services, Asymmetric Open and Global Imbalances: An Empirical Study Across Countries
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| 作者 | 陈启斐 刘志彪 |
| Author | Chen Qifei and Liu Zhibiao |
| 作者单位 | 南京财经大学；南京大学 |
| Organization | Nanjing University Of Finance & Economics; Nanjing University |
| 作者Email | chennpl@126.com； |
| 中文关键词 | 服务贸易；非对称开放；经常账户；全球失衡 |
| Key Words | trade in services；asymmetric open；current account；global imbalances |
| 内容提要 | 本文从贸易内部结构出发，分析了非对称开放条件下，服务贸易兴起与全球失衡之间的关系。并利用全球59个主要贸易国家2000—2011年双边贸易数据对两者之间的关系进行了计量分析，实证结果显示：第一，服务贸易净值与经常账户余额之间存在显著的负向关系，在引入交互项之后这种关系依然显著成立。第二，金融危机之后，服务贸易和经常账户的负向关系进一步强化。第三，在分组研究中，发达国家与发展中国家之间的服务贸易对经常账户失衡的影响最强，发展中国家之间的服务贸易对经常账户失衡的影响最弱。 |
| Abstract | Start from internal structure of trade, this paper analyzes the relationship between trade in services and global imbalances under the condition of asymmetric open. In addition, we estimate them empirically by bilateral trade data in 59 major trade countries from 2000 to 2011,the results indicates that: firstly, there is a significant negative relationship between net service trade value and current account balance, after the introduction of the interaction term, this relationship between them still remains significant after introduction of the interaction term.. Secondly, after the financial crisis, the negative relationship between trade in services and current account has further strengthened. Thirdly, when divided these countries into groups, service trade between developed and developing countries have the strongest impact on the current account imbalances ,while trade in services among developing countries have the weakest influence on current account imbalances . |
| 文章编号 | WP976 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-12-04 |
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