中国资本账户开放应慎行----基于DSGE的政策模拟研究
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| Title | Be Cautious for Chinese Capital Account liberalization----Perspective from DSGE Policy Simulation
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| 作者 | 刘红忠 杨小海 王弟海 |
| Author | Liu hongzhong, Yang xiaohai and Wang dihai |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Fudan University of China |
| 作者Email | hzliu@fudan.edu.cn；yxhfd528@163.com；Wangdihai@fudan.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 政策模拟 资本外流 外汇储备 |
| Key Words | Policy Simulation; Capital Outflows; Foreign Reserves |
| 内容提要 | 长期以来，对中国资本账户开放的政策模拟往往缺乏微观基础，得到的结果也充满了争议。本文在DSGE两国模型的框架下，对学术界最新的方法进行了改进，同时根据经济的基本面对当下中国对外股权投资逐渐开放的过程进行了政策模拟，并评估了其潜在风险。模拟结果显示，当下若完全开放对外股权投资，中国可能面临资本外流的压力，而且外汇储备将面临枯竭的风险。本文主张经济结构性改革应优先于资本账户开放，同时发现降低居民的风险厌恶程度、加快国内的金融体系改革对未来缓解资本账户开放后所面临的资本外流压力大有裨益。 |
| Abstract | For a long time, Studies on the simulation of Chinese Capital Account liberalization not only encounter the criticism of lack of micro-foundation, but also face with controversial empirical result. In the framework of bilateral DSGE model, a method of academia latest method has been improved. At the same time, according to the economic fundamentals, we simulate the gradual process of Chinese opening foreign equity investment, and also assess its potential risks. The simulation results show that if the foreign equity investment was fully opened, China may face the pressure of capital outflows, and foreign exchange reserves will face the risk of depletion. This paper advocates economic structural reform should be ahead of capital account liberalization, and speeding up the reform of domestic financial systems would ease the pressure of capital outflows after future capital account liberalization. |
| 文章编号 | WP925 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-09-30 |
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