国债发行对居民消费影响的动态弹性分析——基于可变参数模型的实证研究
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| Title | The Dynamic Elastic Analysis of the Net Effect of National Debt on Residents’ Consumption Based on Variable-parameter Mode
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| 作者 | 张屹山 陈默 张鹤 |
| Author | Zhang Yishan,Chen Mo and Zhang He |
| 作者单位 | 吉林大学商学院；中国人民大学财政金融学院 |
| Organization | Jinlin University;RENMIN University |
| 作者Email | hezhang@ruc.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 国债 居民消费 可变参数模型 |
| Key Words | National Debt; Residents’ Consumption; Variable-parameter Model |
| 内容提要 | 本文首先采用基于状态空间方程的可变参数模型对我国1981~2011年间的国债发行对城乡居民消费影响的动态弹性进行了实证检验，发现我国国债发行对于农村居民消费的影响不显著，对于城镇居民而言，长期来看国债发行对其有正向的引致效应。但从短期看，国债发行量的迅速增加对城镇居民消费支出产生一定的负向替代效应，弹性系数的变化趋势表明，我国国债发行对于城镇居民消费的影响程度不大且出现阶段性减小的趋势。接下来的基于可变系数的面板数据模型检验解释了其中原因，即我国国债发行仅对城镇居民中收入最高的居民消费产生了显著的正向引致效应，而对大多数的其他阶层影响很小。因此，为了刺激居民消费需求以扩大内需，应该改变原有的主要面向机构投资者的国债发行方式，并尽量避免国债发行规模的剧烈变化以免产生负面影响。 |
| Abstract | Firstly, based on state-space equations of the variable parameter model to China between 1981 and 2011 bonds issued on the impact of urban and rural residents' consumption dynamic elastic empirical test and found that the national debt issue for the consumption of rural residents was not significant, for urban residents, the long-term treasury bonds have a positive result of its effect. But short term, the rapid increase in the amount of bonds issued for urban residents 'consumption expenditures have some negative substitution effect, elasticity trends show that China's bond issuance for the degree of influence of urban residents' consumption is small, and a phased reduction of trend. The next panel data based on variable coefficient model checking explains the reason that the National Debt by only the highest income of urban residents consumption produced a significant positive result effect, while for most other sectors have little effect. |
| 文章编号 | WP604 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-04-02 |
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