适应性学习、宏观经济预期与我国最优货币政策
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| Title | Adaptive Learning, Macroeconomic Expectation and the Optimal Monetary Policy in China
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| 作者 | 卞志村 高洁超 |
| Author | Bian Zhicun and Gao Jiechao |
| 作者单位 | 南京财经大学 |
| Organization | Nanjing University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | bzc1975@sohu.com；gaojiech.kwok@qq.com |
| 中文关键词 | 适应性学习 新凯恩斯模型 最优货币政策 动态模拟 |
| Key Words | Adaptive Learning; New Keynesian Model; Optimal Policy; Dynamic Simulation |
| 内容提要 | 传统货币政策框架所定义的最优货币政策是围绕中央银行二次型损失函数展开的。近年来有研究表明，货币政策是否最优的重要标准是能否使经济趋于理性预期均衡水平。本文从这一视角出发，进一步探讨中央银行与公众间不同策略互动如何导致实际经济偏离理性预期均衡水平。首先，在新凯恩斯模型框架内，对理性预期假设进行适当放松，通过引入适应性学习刻画宏观经济预期形成过程。其次，通过动态数值模拟，计算不同货币政策目标制下实际经济对均衡水平的偏离程度以及相应的均值和波动水平。最后，分析并甄选我国最优货币政策。本文研究发现，灵活通货膨胀目标制和混合名义收入目标制均可成为我国最优货币政策的有效实现形式，如此可促进经
济平稳、协调发展。 |
| Abstract | The optimal monetary policy defined by the traditional framework of monetary policy is based on the quadratic loss function of the central bank. Some existing research has recently showed that the important standard of optimal policy is whether it could make the economy converge to the rational expectation equilibrium. From this perspective, this paper further explores how the different strategic interactions between the central bank and the public lead economy to deviation from the REE. First, it depicts the forming process of macro expectations through introducing adaptive learning in the framework of the New Keynesian model. Second, we calculate the deviation degree of economy to the REE and the level of mean and volatility of economy by using the method of dynamic numerical simulation under different strategic interactions. Last, we analyze the results above all and distinguish the optimal monetary policy. This paper shows flexible inflation target or mixed nominal income target could be used by the central bank to make the economy steady and develop in harmony. |
| 文章编号 | WP561 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-11-20 |
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