外部平衡的增长率：来自中国的经验数据的验证
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| Title | External Equilibrium Growth Rate: Evidence from China
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| 作者 | 王晋斌 李莎 |
| Author | Wang Jinbin and Li Sha |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | wjinbin@ruc.edu.cn. |
| 中文关键词 | 外部平衡 贸易弹性 Thirlwall法则 增长率 |
| Key Words | External Balance; Trade Elasticity; Thirlwall Law; Growth Rat |
| 内容提要 | 当外部平衡时中国经济还能维持多高的增长率？本文在既有研究基础上采用纳入贸易条件变动、国际资本流动和外汇储备因素的扩展的国际收支增长模型（ABPC模型），采用较为稳健的贸易弹性估计方法，估算结果表明，ABPC模型对中国经济的适用性上依然存在偏差，尽管符合模型的理论推演，但表明在使用ABPC模型分析中国情况时要持有谨慎态度。同时借助强Thirlwall法则，推测出当中国的外部趋于平衡状态时，中国经济的增长率将会以约两倍于世界经济增长率的速度增长。 |
| Abstract | Can Chinese economy maintain the high growth rate when its external imbalance is disappearing? Based on the related researches, this paper uses the Augmented Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model (ABPC) and more reliable methods to gauge the trade elasticities, and the results indicate that there is also deviation between the real GDP growth rate and estimation outcome. So we should use the ABPC model carefully in analyzing China’s situation. Using strong version of Thirlwall’s Law, when China's exterior tends to be the state of equilibrium, the Chinese economy growth rate is about two times than the growth rate of world economy. |
| 文章编号 | WP525 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-09-13 |
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