中国货币超发的计量
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| Title | The Measure of Excessive Money Issuance in China
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| 作者 | 张桥云 张隽 |
| Author | Zhang Qiaoyun and Zhang Jun |
| 作者单位 | 西南财经大学金融学院 |
| Organization | Institute of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | zhang888@swufe.edu.cn；johnzj123123@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 货币超发 DSGE模型 货币供给 货币需求 |
| Key Words | Excessive Money Issuance；DSGE Model；Money Supply；Money Demand |
| 内容提要 | 货币超发是指货币供给超过实体经济对货币的需求而过量发行的数额。本文将货币超发分成累计的货币超发和当年的货币超发两个概念，并建立带有粘性价格的动态随机一般均衡DSGE模型模，在此基础上模拟出1984——2010各年度的货币均衡值，分别计算出累计的货币超发和当年的货币超发额。分析表明，我国货币超发发生在1993年后，并成为经济运行的常态现象和货币深化的重要特征，其中2009、2010年是我国货币超发的高峰期。货币超发的不断增加实际上意味着货币效能的不断下降。 |
| Abstract | Excessive money issuance refers to the amount that money supply exceeds money demand of an economy. In this paper, we use two measures of excessive money issuance, accumulative excessive money issuance and annual excessive money issuance. We build a DSGE model to simulate the equilibrium amount of money from 1984 to 2010, and calculate accumulative excessive money issuance and annual excessive money issuance respectively. Our analysis shows that the excessive money issuance appeared in 1993. Since then, excessive money issuance has been a regular economic phenomenon and an important characteristic of financial deepening. During our sample period, annual excessive money issuance reached its highest point between 2008 and 2010. The increasing of excessive money issuance effectively decreases the functioning of money. |
| 文章编号 | WP438 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-04-26 |
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