住宅价格波动对中国宏观经济的冲击效应——基于投入产出表的测算
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| Title | The Effect of Housing Price Fluctuations on China’s Macro-economy——Calculation Based on the Input-output Table
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| 作者 | 高波 任若恩 |
| Author | Gao Bo Ren Ruoen |
| 作者单位 | 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics and Management; Beihang University |
| 作者Email | gb6010@163.com,ruoen8324@vip.sina.com |
| 中文关键词 | 住宅产业 投入产出分析 压力测试 增加值 |
| Key Words | Housing Industry; Input-output Analysis; Stress Testing; Value Added |
| 内容提要 | 本文首先将住宅产业定义为建筑业和房地产业关于普通住宅的部分，然后基于投入产出分析，提出一种方法测算住宅产业及其上下游产业的增加值，并利用压力测试方法研究普通住宅的价格波动对部门经济和总体经济的冲击强度。实证结果表明：建筑业、非金属矿物制品业等与住宅市场关系密切，但房地产业、金融业等第三产业在压力情景下受到的冲击更大；在总体经济层面，中国的国内生产总值增长率在轻、中、重度压力情景下将分别减少2.1%、2.7%、3.6%。为对冲由普通住宅的价格调整引起的经济下行风险，应吸引更多产业参与保障房建设，充分发挥它对国民经济的拉动作用。 |
| Abstract | This paper first defines housing industry as construction and real estate sectors relative to common houses, then proposes an accounting method to evaluate the value added of housing industry and its upstream and downstream sectors based on input-output analysis, and applies stress testing method to research that how much price fluctuations of common houses will affect sector and whole economy. Empirical results show that construction, manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products and other sectors have close relation with housing market, but there are more shock to real estate, financial intermediation and other tertiary sectors in stress scenarios. For overall economy, the growth rate of GDP in China will respectively decrease 2.1%, 2.7% and 3.6% in mild, moderate and severe scenarios. In order to hedge economic downside risk induced by the adjustment of sales price of common houses, we should attract more sectors to join in the construction of ensuring houses, and let the pulling effect of ensuring houses give full play on the national economy. |
| 文章编号 | WP189 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-01-10 |
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