中国的货币政策存在非对称损失偏好吗？
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| Title | Why are the RMB Exchange Rate Policy and its Behaviors Reasonable?
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| 作者 | 王晋斌 李南 孙涛 |
| Author | Wang Jinbin, Li Nan and Sun Tao |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | wjinbin@ruc.edu.cn;lisouth2003@yahoo.com.cn;suntao@ruc.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 非对称损失偏好 产出和通胀缺口 相机抉择 |
| Key Words | Asymmetric Loss Preference; Output gap and Inflation gap; Discretion |
| 内容提要 | 本文首次采用非对称损失函数检验了中国央行货币政策损失偏好的性质。采用两种产出缺口的估计方法的计量结论均不支持央行在产出缺口损失或通胀缺口损失上存在显著的非对称损失偏好，对称性损失偏好函数的假定不能被拒绝。这表明控通胀和促增长是中国央行并重的目标，或央行倾向于在通胀和增长之间权衡抉择，表现出相机抉择的货币政策取向。这可能与中国经济增长模式和通胀因素的复杂性有关。 |
| Abstract | This paper adopts the asymmetric loss function to explore the preference nature of China’s Central Bank. With two methods to estimate the output gap, the econometric evidences do not support the hypotheses of the asymmetric loss preference on output gap or inflation gap. In other words, the symmetric loss preference of China’s Central Bank can’t be rejected. China’s Central Bank pays much attention to both the economic growth and inflation. The symmetric loss preference of China’s Central Bank may be related to the China’s economic growth model and complexity factors of inflation, which made the Central Bank to uses the discretion policies. |
| 文章编号 | WP163 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-12-14 |
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