中国资本账户开放的最优时点选择
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| Title | Optimal Instants of China Capital Account Liberalization
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| 作者 | 李巍 |
| Author | Li Wei |
| 作者单位 | 华东师范大学金融研究院 上海交通大学现代金融研究中心 |
| Organization | Huadong Normal University and Shanghai Jiaotong University |
| 作者Email | happyleewei@yahoo.com.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 金融稳定 资本账户开放 最优时点选择 中国 |
| Key Words | Financial Stability; Capital Account Liberalization; Optimal Instant; China |
| 内容提要 | 后危机时代研究不同类型资本账户开放对金融不稳定的影响及如何选择适当的时机实施开放举措是非常有理论创新价值和现实意义的。文章首先研究证券投资与借贷融资流动对金融不稳定的影响。随后，利用切换系统最优控制模型分析资本账户开放的最优时点选择。结果显示：借贷融资流入开放会直接导致金融不稳定程度的明显上升；对于低开放度经济体，借贷融资流出的开放会直接导致金融稳定程度的下降，而对于高开放度经济体来说，借贷融资流出的开放会增加国内金融不稳定程度；证券投资流入的开放会恶化金融稳定状况，但对于新兴市场经济体而言其影响非常微弱；低开放度经济体对外证券投资会直接提高金融稳定程度，但对于开放经济体其产生的后果却截然相反。在确保国内金融稳定的前提之下，于2011年2月至9月期间实施借贷融资流入的开放、2014年8月至9月末推出借贷融资流出的开放措施以及2016年2月至10月期间开放对外证券投资将是非常合意的。与此同时，中国宏观当局应尽快完成资本账下证券投资流入的开放。 |
| Abstract | In the post era of international financial crisis, related study about the impact of different capital account liberalization on the financial instability and how to choose the optimal instants of the liberalization implementation has theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, we first analyze the influence of security investment and loan flowing liberalization on the financial instability. Subsequently, we introduce the switch system optimal control model to simulate the optimal instants of capital account liberalization in China. The results indicate that loan inflow will increase the financial instability. Loan outflow will increase the risks in low degree openness economies and directly lead to reduce the financial instability in high degree openness economies. The portfolio investment inflow will worsen the financial stability and for emerging market economies, the impact is relatively weak. For low degree openness economies, the portfolio investment outflow will directly improve the domestic financial stability. But for open economies, the consequences are just of its opposite. Ensuring the premise of domestic financial stability during the observation period from 2010 to 2020, the optimal liberalization instant of China loan inflow should be located from February to September 2011, the implementation of the loan outflow could be August to the end of September 2014. And meanwhile, the liberalization instant of portfolio investment outflow will be launched in February to October 2016. At the same time, China marco-authority might complete the liberalization of the portfolio investment inflow as soon as possible. |
| 文章编号 | WP9 |
| 登载时间 | 2010-10-18 |
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